One of the discussions of the 2020 NFL offseason is whether or not the Las Vegas Raiders should go a different direction at the quarterback position, or in other words, move away from Derek Carr. Just two years after Carr was drafted, the Raiders had a 12-4 season and made the playoffs. They ended up losing to the Texans in the wildcard round, but the future looked bright in Oakland. They had a quarterback who threw 28 touchdowns and nearly 4,000 yards, as well as a young defensive star in Khalil Mack and a promising young receiver in Amari Cooper. After a disappointing season in 2017, the front office thought it was time for a coaching change, which is when they hired John Gruden. Gruden traded Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper for draft picks, and left Carr without the offensive weapons he needed. The Raiders have not yet returned to their success we saw in 2016, and some think Carr is holding them back, but I disagree. I actually think Carr has improved and still has the potential to be a top 10 quarterback in the NFL.
Carr made the best of a bad situation in 2019, putting together a solid season considering the limited offensive weapons he had in 2019. His best receivers were Hunter Renfro and Tyrell Williams, neither of whom had more than 700 yards receiving. Willimas is a solid deep threat, and productive in the red zone, but that is about it. He is not a great route runner, which limits his versatility. Renfrow and Williams both dropped more than 9% of their passes, which is obviously not good for a quarterback, but there is nothing Carr can do about his receivers dropping passes. Neither of these two guys were legitimate number one options in 2019. Renfrow may become that guy in the future, but he was not last year.
The most surprising element of the Raiders offense last season was Darren Waller, their breakout star at tight end. Waller had over 1,000 receiving yards, and played a vital role in the Raiders run game last year. However, there is only so much a tight end can do for a quarterback. He is a number one option, but it makes it much more difficult for an offense to be successful when the only receiving threat is a tight end. It isn’t very difficult for a defense to shut down a tight end when that’s all they have to do, but when there is even one threat on the outside, the defense can’t completely commit to neutralizing a tight end. Waller is a star and there is no question about that, but Carr needs more than just him to make his offense good enough to compete.
Carr’s stats have taken a hit over the past few seasons, but he still puts up good numbers considering the weapons he has on offense. He has passed for 4,000 yards in both of his last two seasons and posted the best QBR of his career in 2019 at 100.8. His 21 touchdowns was the second lowest of his career, but Josh Jacobs was getting the ball on the goal line most of the time, which definitely caused Carr’s passing touchdowns to take a hit. Pro Football Focus graded Carr 11th among quarterbacks with a 79.9, the second best grade of his career. While I often disagree with ratings from Pro Football Focus, they do watch every snap from every game in order to determine a player’s grade, so they are somewhat reliable. As for the more traditional quarterback statistics, Carr’s had career highs in passing yards, completion percentage, and yards per attempt in 2019, while ranking second in completion percentage, and eighth in passing yards.
The Kansas City Chiefs just won the superbowl, and while Patrick Mahomes is one of the most talented quarterbacks we have ever seen, he had no shortage of offensive weapons this past season. When your receiving corps includes Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Travis Kelce, it is safe to say your job as the quarterback becomes easier. If the Chiefs hadn’t signed Watkins or drafted Hardman, maybe the 49ers defense would have been able to stop Mahomes, or maybe the Chiefs wouldn’t have made it to the superbowl at all. The point is, the Kansas City front office has done a terrific job providing Mahomes with the weapons he needs to be successful. We can’t make a judgement on Carr based on a couple seasons when he has not been in the best situation.
The Raiders currently hold the #12 overall pick in the draft, and it would be surprising if both Ceedee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy are already off the board. This is one of the deepest receiver classes we have ever seen, so even if Las Vegas can’t land Lamb or Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III is also a viable option at #12, and there will still be talent at the receiver position into the second and third rounds. The Raiders have an opportunity to provide Carr with another weapon for this offense, assuming they stick with him into the 2020 season. I’m surprised there is even talk about the Raiders moving on from Carr, and if they do decide to sign someone else or draft a young quarterback, I would not be surprised if Carr finds success somewhere else. It’s still too early to just give up on Carr, and I think he has the potential to be a top 10 quarterback in this league moving forward.